Poles – More polarized than Americans
Poland experienced a sudden and widely welcomed return to liberal democracy in October 2023. The country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has been praised as a European leader who knows how to defeat populists at the ballot box—a rare skill on a continent increasingly turning to the far-right, as shown in the June European elections.
Poland managed to break out of the populist cycle, but its challenges are far from over. Tusk has inherited a deeply divided country and contributed to polarization himself on the campaign trail. How he addresses these entrenched divisions will be crucial for the future of Poland’s democracy and is of interest to countries at direct risk of populism, such as Germany and France.
The International research consortium Digital Society Project collects expert assessments on the level of ideological polarization in several dozen countries worldwide, including Poland. In 2021, the index for Poland was 3.83. For comparison, in 2001, it was 2.71, indicating a 41% increase in polarization over 20 years. As shown in the graph, divisions in Poland have been systematically increasing, with brief declines in 2008 and 2010.
What exactly does the score of 3.83 mean? Experts from each country are asked about the extent of "differences of opinions on major political issues in your society" and are to rate these on a scale from 0 to 4. A score of 3 means there are "differences on many key political issues, which result in moderate clashes of views." A score of 4 indicates that „there are serious differences in opinions in society on almost all key political issues, which result in major clashes of views." Poland is close to this state.
How does Poland compare to the rest of Europe?
Ideological polarization in Poland is very high compared to other European countries. For comparison, in 2021, France had a score of 3.17, Germany 2.43, the United Kingdom 2.83, and Sweden 2.13. Divisions have increased in most European countries, but from a lower starting point than in Poland. Even in the highly divided United States, the polarization index is lower than in Poland, at 3.5. In the EU, only Hungary has a higher polarization score (4), and in larger Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro also have scores of 4.
Interestingly, despite—or perhaps because of—the intense polarization around them, Poles are overwhelmingly in favor of reducing political conflict and finding common ground. A 2022 study by the InFuture Institute revealed that 87% are exhausted by polarization, and 92% want to see different social groups come together. This was further confirmed last year in a pre-election study by More in Common Polska, which found that 78% of voters view the capacity for compromise as an essential trait of a good politician. This makes Poland particularly interesting–not just as a case study in deep polarization but as Europe’s potential source of depolarization solutions.
Written by Wawrzyniec Smoczyński
Photograph by Egor Komarov, Unsplash